When the COVID-19 pandemic kept millions of people around the world close to home for months on end in the spring of 2020, many experts predicted a baby boom would be the inevitable outcome.
But initially, at least, it’s been more of a bust than a boom.
Researchers in Italy and at Cornell University found births declined more than 7% in the United States.
The researchers looked at the relationship between the highly contagious virus and births in 22 high-income countries. They found strong declines in southern Europe, with births dropping more than 9% in Italy, 8% in Spain and 6% in Portugal.
Overall, the pandemic’s effect on birth rates — at least initially — has been negative, with many of the 22 countries studied recording drops.
However, researchers found that some countries, including Denmark, The Netherlands, Germany and Switzerland, held steady or gained.
It’s no surprise that, despite focusing people on hearth and home, COVID-19 would bring fewer babies. Throughout history, pandemics have had a huge influence on population changes, altering death and birth rates. By the second year of the Spanish flu in 1919, U.S. births dropped 13% from the previous year.
Researchers suggested the countries that fared best for babies in their study may have had less economic uncertainty and benefited from family-friendly policies.
The researchers say their study looked at the first phase of COVID-19, and with subsequent pandemic waves in fall 2020 and winter 2021, there is more data to be studied before they can say whether lockdowns are as rough on romance as they are on a virus.